Champions League Forecasting Lab
A transparent forecasting lab planned around sequential ratings, score models, leakage-safe evaluation, and tournament simulation.
The context
A rigorous plan—without pretending it is finished.
The project is designed to make changing football beliefs inspectable: every forecast should exist before the match, evaluation should move chronologically, and tournament odds should be reproducible from the underlying match model.
My contribution
What I built
- 01
Designed a historical match-ingestion and validation workflow.
- 02
Specified sequential Elo ratings and Poisson score modelling, with a possible Dixon–Coles extension.
- 03
Planned walk-forward evaluation using Brier score, log loss, calibration, and error analysis.
- 04
Planned immutable pre-match snapshots and Monte Carlo tournament simulations.
Architecture
How the work moves
Evidence
Planned proof points
Honest evaluation
Limits and trade-offs
- No working implementation, output, metric, test suite, repository, or deployment was available during the portfolio audit.
- Every technical item on this page describes planned scope, not completed functionality.
- The project is analytical and must not be framed as betting advice.
Inspect the work
Stack and reproduction
- 1Reproduction instructions will be published with the first verified implementation.